New Bill of Rights

Rejected category · Low floor that moves with outcomes

Electoral College & Presidential Elections

A national popular vote drew 46% of Republicans and 80% of Democrats (Pew Research Center, 2024), 26–43% of Republicans under amendment wording, and each party's support has moved with who last won the presidency.

Rejected 2026-08-06. A rejection is not a judgment that the issue doesn't matter — it is a judgment that the category cannot pass the full-spectrum test today. The evidence, the test, and the path back are below.

The proposal

A constitutional amendment abolishing the Electoral College and electing the President and Vice President by direct national popular vote. The most recent congressional resolution, in December 2024, drew no cosponsors and no hearing.12 Two variants travel under the same name. The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is a statute pledging member states’ electors to the national popular-vote winner once states holding 270 electoral votes have joined; as of April 2026, 18 states plus the District of Columbia have enacted it, 222 electoral votes, 48 short of activation.34 Proportional or district allocation of electors, the Maine and Nebraska model, changes the mechanism without touching the institution.

The evidence

Asked whether to change the current system so the candidate who receives the most votes nationwide wins, 63% of Americans said yes and 35% would keep the Electoral College: 80% of Democrats and 46% of Republicans (Pew Research Center, 2024).5 It is the highest Republican number on record since 2011.

Democrats: 80% 80% Dem Republicans: 46% 46% Rep bipartisan floor · 46% (Republicans)
Change the system so the candidate who receives the most votes nationwide wins — Pew Research Center, 2024

Wording that names the Constitution polls lower. Asked whether to amend the Constitution so the candidate with the most total votes nationwide wins, 58% favored amending: 82% of Democrats, 60% of independents, and 32% of Republicans (Gallup, 2024).6 The same wording seven weeks after the 2024 election drew 44%: 66% of Democrats, 41% of independents, and 26% of Republicans (Economist/YouGov, 2024).7 The newest number, from a favor-or-oppose battery rather than a head-to-head choice, was 56%: 78% of Democrats, 49% of independents, and 43% of Republicans, with 40% of Republicans opposed (Economist/YouGov, 2026).8

The House passed a direct-election amendment 338–70 in 1969; Senate cloture failed 54–36 and 53–34 in 1970 under the two-thirds rule then in force — the only floor votes either chamber has taken on abolition.910 The only statewide ballot on the compact, Colorado Proposition 113 in 2020, passed 52.3% to 47.7% in a state the Democratic nominee carried the same day.11 We used no advocacy-commissioned polls.

The test it failed

The bipartisan floor is 46%, among Republicans, on the Pew wording — the bottom edge of Moderate. Every independent poll using amendment wording is Weak: 32% (Gallup, 2024), 26% (Economist/YouGov, 2024), 43% (Economist/YouGov, 2026).678

High topline, low floor. 63% overall rests on an 80/46 split (Pew Research Center, 2024); 58% on 82/32 (Gallup, 2024); 56% on 78/43 (Economist/YouGov, 2026). The party gap is 34 to 50 points on every independent measurement.568

Support moves with who won last. In Gallup’s series, Republican support for an amendment was 53% in 2011, fell to 17% in November 2016 after a Republican Electoral College win without a popular-vote plurality, and recovered to 32% by 2024; Democratic support ran 71–74% through 2011 and rose to 81–89% after 2016.6 Weeks after a Republican nominee won both the popular vote and the Electoral College, Republican support fell to 26% (Economist/YouGov, 2024).7 In Gallup’s surveys of the 1960s through 1980s, an average of 70% of Republicans and 66% of Democrats approved.6 A floor measured while one side believes the rule favors it is not a floor.

Framing dependency. No wording that names an amendment clears 45% among Republicans; only “change the system” reaches the mid-40s.

The symmetry test. A popular-vote rule can be written to bind both parties equally, but both parties evaluate it by who won last; the 1969–70 vote is the only moment on record when it did not read as one side’s remedy.

Framings we tested

  • “Change the system so the most-votes candidate wins.” 46–47% of Republicans, 80–82% of Democrats (Pew Research Center, 2023 and 2024).125 Borderline Moderate. Not a different proposal: the amendment described without the word “amend.”
  • “Amend the Constitution so the candidate with the most total votes nationwide wins.” 32% of Republicans, 82% of Democrats (Gallup, 2024); 26% and 66% (Economist/YouGov, 2024).67 Weak. The wording closest to what we would draft.
  • A favor-or-oppose battery of amendments. 43% of Republicans favor, 40% oppose; 78% of Democrats favor (Economist/YouGov, 2026).8 Weak, and softer than a forced choice.
  • The interstate compact. A statute, not an amendment: 52.3% yes in Colorado in 2020; 48 electoral votes short of activation.113 A different instrument, and the argument that no amendment is needed.
  • Proportional or district allocation of electors. No independent national poll with party breakdowns located for 2020–2026. Maine and Nebraska already do this under state law.

None clears the bar. The framing that once did — the 1969 House vote and Gallup’s 80% overall in 1968 — predates the modern split and cannot be recreated by wording.6

The path back

Reopen if an independent pollster shows at least 55% of Republicans favoring an amendment to elect the president by national popular vote in head-to-head wording, and the number holds in a poll fielded after a presidential election the Democratic nominee won — the last configuration in which Republican support approached parity, 53% in 2011 (Gallup).6 A symmetric sub-issue with its own polling, such as contingent-election reform, could also reopen it; none is identified today. Republican support has risen in all three series — Gallup 23% (2020) to 32% (2024), Pew 27% (2016) to 46% (2024), Economist/YouGov 26% (2024) to 43% (2026) — so we will re-check after the 2028 election.658

Sources

  1. S.J.Res.121, 118th Congress, a joint resolution to abolish the Electoral College and provide for direct election of the President and Vice President, introduced Dec. 12, 2024 by Sen. Schatz with no cosponsors and referred to the Judiciary Committee; no hearing held — Congress.gov. ↩

  2. H.J.Res.227, 118th Congress, House companion introduced Dec. 12, 2024 by Rep. Cohen and referred to the Judiciary Committee; no hearing held — Congress.gov. ↩

  3. National Popular Vote Interstate Compact enacted in 18 states plus the District of Columbia, 222 electoral votes, 48 short of the 270 needed for activation; passed by one chamber in six additional states with 61 electoral votes — National Popular Vote, state status (advocacy site; enactment tally). ↩ ↩2

  4. Virginia became the 19th jurisdiction to enact the compact on April 13, 2026, bringing it to 222 electoral votes; the compact’s senior consultant said lawsuits would be likely if it reaches 270 — NPR, Apr. 14, 2026. ↩

  5. Change the system so the candidate who receives the most votes nationwide wins: 63% overall, 35% keep the Electoral College; Democrats and Democratic leaners 80%, Republicans and Republican leaners 46% (53% of Republicans prefer the current system); 27% of Republicans favored a popular vote in November 2016; n=9,720 adults, Aug. 26–Sep. 2, 2024 — Pew Research Center, Sept. 25, 2024; restated in Pew Research Center, July 28, 2026. ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4

  6. Amend the Constitution so the candidate who receives the most total votes nationwide wins: 58% amend, 39% keep the Electoral College; Democrats 82%, independents 60%, Republicans 32%; Republican trend 42% (2000), 46% (2004), 53% (Oct. 2011), 17% (Nov. 2016), 25% (2019), 23% (2020), 32% (2024); Democratic trend 74, 73, 71, 81, 84, 89, 82; independents 60, 66, 61, 46, 57, 68, 60; in 1960s–80s surveys an average of 70% of Republicans and 66% of Democrats approved, peaking at 80% overall in November 1968; n=1,007 adults, Sept. 3–15, 2024 — Gallup, Sept. 27, 2024. ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4 ↩5 ↩6 ↩7 ↩8 ↩9

  7. Amend the Constitution so the candidate who receives the most total votes nationwide wins vs. keep the current system: 44% amend, 36% keep, 20% not sure; Democrats 66%, independents 41%, Republicans 26% (61% of Republicans keep); n=1,552 adult citizens, Dec. 29–31, 2024 — Economist/YouGov crosstabs, Q20, p. 54; poll write-up. ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4

  8. “Would you favor or oppose making the following amendments to the U.S. Constitution? Choose the president using popular vote, not the Electoral College”: 56% favor, 23% oppose, 21% not sure; Democrats 78%, independents 49%, Republicans 43% favor and 40% oppose; n=1,549 adult citizens, June 13–15, 2026 — Economist/YouGov crosstabs, Q13A, p. 15; poll write-up. ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4 ↩5

  9. H.J.Res.681, direct election with a 40% threshold and runoff, passed the House 338–70 on Sept. 18, 1969 after the Judiciary Committee reported it 28–6 — U.S. House, History, Art & Archives. ↩

  10. S.J.Res.1, 91st Congress: cloture failed 54–36 on Sept. 17, 1970 and 53–34 on Sept. 29, 1970 under the two-thirds rule then in force; motion withdrawn Oct. 5 — U.S. Senate, cloture motions, 91st Congress. ↩

  11. Colorado Proposition 113 (Nov. 3, 2020), referendum on the state’s National Popular Vote law: 1,644,716 yes (52.3%) to 1,498,500 no (47.7%) — Colorado Secretary of State, official results. ↩ ↩2

  12. Change to a popular vote: 65% overall, 33% keep; Democrats 82%, Republicans 47%; fieldwork July 2023 — Pew Research Center, Sept. 19, 2023; overall trend 61% (2000) to 63% (2024) — Pew Research Center trend chart. ↩

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